Weekly Grain Market Recap 

Corn and soybean futures shot higher following the 11 AM release of USDA’s WASDE Report - and for good reason! It suffices to say fundamental landscape for American grains is shifting. Corn stocks were slashed for the 7th consecutive month amidst the hottest start to export sales in more than 5 years, and production estimates for both corn and soybeans were well below traders’ pre-report expectations. Will this be the start of a longer-tailed rally? To answer that, we’ll have to dive deeply into the balance sheets for corn, soybeans, and wheat. 

WASDE By-The-Numbers Snapshot

Corn

WASDE Recap

The sharp 3.8 BPA reduction in corn yields to 179.3 resulted in the larger-than-anticipated 276 mil bu reduction in U.S. corn production to 14,867 bil bu. That was the primary driver in today’s rally, as other line-item changes were less impactful and less friendly. Specifically, USDA opted to slash both domestic exports to 2,450 bil bu (down 25 mil bu) due to fewer available supplies. Domestic supplies were modestly reduced (50 mil bu) to 15,115 based on disappearance during the September-November quarter. Fundamentally, that leaves ending stocks in the middle of the recent 5-year period, as displayed below. 

Export Demand Snapshot 

Export sales in ‘24/25 have been stout, averaging more than 1 million bushels per week since mid-November. Total sales are over 38.79 million tons during the first four months of the ‘24/25 crop year, up roughly 28% from the last crop year. Interestingly, it’s been Mexico and Japan doing most of the heavy lifting, while China has been largely absent thus far. Despite a weaker-than-expected export total for the first week of 2025, Gulf corn remains the cheapest in the world on a FOB basis. 

As the South American harvest begins, we will likely see Brazilian and Argentinian FOB prices converge or move below U.S. Gulf prices. But for the time being, U.S. exports should remain relatively strong. 

Basis Snapshot

National basis bids unsurprisingly dipped amidst elevators and processors on Friday following the strong performance of front-month March corn futures. Ethanol plants’ bids remain the most resolute nationally for the time being as production is record-high to begin 2025. Call the Trade Desk at (312) 278-0500 for regional-specific coverage of cash market activity.

Soybeans: 

WASDE Recap: 

USDA revised soybean harvested area and national average soybean yields lower in Friday’s report, resulting in total soybean production falling 95 mil bu to 4,366 billion bushels. The significant haircut in domestic production was a breath of fresh air for grain bulls, and it corresponded with Brazilian soybean production estimates falling below 170 MMT number, coming in at 169 MMT. Futures shot sharply higher following the report’s release, as this was the first real contraction that we’ve had in available supplies in several months between U.S. production falling and Brazil’s production falling short of 170 MMT. World soybean ending stocks remain the highest in 5 years, but the reduction may provide some breathing room in the short-term. 

Export Demand Snapshot:

U.S. soybean sales to China have increased substantially over the past two months, averaging nearly 1.4 MMT. The reason cited for the pickup in pace stems from the uncertainty of trade relations ahead of President Trump’s inauguration. However, their import pace remains toward the bottom end of the range over the past 5 years. As Brazil and Argentina rapidly approaches harvest season, its export sales will be a primary driver in global prices. Brazilian and Argentinian export prices have both recently dipped back below U.S. Gulf prices 

Basis Snapshot: 

As with corn, national average basis bids were lower on Friday following the strong reaction in front-month futures. Soybean crush margins have firmed this week but remain near their tightest levels since June of last year. Call the trade desk at (312) 278-0500. 

Wheat:

It was a run-of-the-mill day in the wheat markets, with the WASDE report bearing few surprises. Line item adjustments of note included. Domestic supplies were notched incrementally higher to 130 mil bu as a result of SRW imports rising 5 mil bu. Similarly, supplies increased by 0.4 MMT to 1,060.7 million, a byproduct of increased production in Syria and Pakistan. The most significant line item adjustment came in world trade, falling 1.7 MMT to 212 MMT because of reduced exports for Russia and Ukraine. Global ending stocks still remain near their lowest levels of any period in the last 5 years.